Wednesday, August 31, 2022

Recession tips: The many meals you can make with ramen


This is fascinating, how ramen is the main barter item in prison.  There are many groups of people with deep ramen cultures.  Obviously Asians with "real," homemade ramen is the main one,  But for cheap packet ramen, jail and prison inmates cook with it, college students usually discover it early on, and in my case, it was as a BMX guy in the early 90's recession.  I've managed to only spend three days in jail in my life, but I did enjoy a big prison ramen meal cooked by a former inmate once, in a Christian biker house I crashed at for a night.  That recipe is below.  

This is the 100th blog post on Steve Emig's Street Life... Whoop whoop!

Ramen isn't food, it's starvation insurance.  The pack of simulated noodles made out of God knows what, along with the little silver packet of magic dust, makes your stomach believe you are eating real food.  But you're not.  For a quarter or so, that pack of ramen will transport you through an afternoon, maybe even a whole day, until you have money to buy real food again.  

In about 1993, I wrote an article for Dig BMX magazine in the U.K., about ramen.  Dig was pretty new, and coming out sporadically, as money allowed, at the time.  If I remember correctly, my ramen piece wound up as a full page article, on the inside back page of one of the early issues of the magazine.  Living in a series of BMX houses, with 2 to 12 roommates, packets of ramen had become a part of BMX and skateboard culture in the long recession of the early 1990's.  

My personal record is when I lived primarily off ramen for about three weeks straight.  Being the dork I was, I bought a speed reading course for $300 at a business conference, while I was living at the infamous P.O.W. BMX House.  I couldn't afford to eat for about three weeks, and lived almost entirely on ramen for that time.  I think I had two real meals in three weeks.  But it was worth it, The speed reading course led to me reading about 100 books, totaling over 27,000 pages, in the next 5 or 6 years.  That helped turn me into the highly intelligent homeless guy who predicts stock market crashes, that I am today (September 2022 is gonna suck for stocks, I think).  

Staple meals for BMXers and skaters in the early 1990's were 23 cent packs of ramen, 49 cent tacos at Del Taco, and 59 cent tacos at Taco Bell (ask the H.B. guys about the "smoky burrito" day).  Even Tony Hawk, in his first book, talks about living off $5 a day in the early 90's, much of that spent at Del Taco, as I recall.  Now we are 30 years older, and heading into what looks like another gnarly recession.  So I'm sharing a few of my favorite recipes using a cheap packet of ramen, available at grocery stores, liquor stores and mini marts, colleges, and prisons across this great country.  For all of you young people out there looking to fill your belly for as little money as possible, during this coming recession, here you go.  

How to cook a standard packet of ramen

You don't just cook ramen.  There is a basic protocol for standard ramen.  (1) Before you open the pack, grab it with both hands, and twist a little, to break up the block of noodles into smaller pieces,  Sure, big long noodles look cool in cookbook photos, but they're a pain to eat in every day chow down mode.  So break up the noodle block into 6 or 8 big chunks, that gives you shorter noodles, which are easier to eat. (2) In a cooking pot, pour about an inch and a half of water, and bring it to a boil.  Only amateurs put the ramen in when the water is cold or warm.  Don't put the noodles in until the water is boiling.  They don't cook any faster if you put them in earlier.  Set the silver packet aside while cooking the noodles.  (3) Cook the noodles until they begin to soften up.  Don't over cook them.  They will continue to soften up because the broth will stay hot, as you add the magic dust, and then eat them.  If you overcook the noodles, they eventually turn into a gooey mass, not good.  So once the noodles begin to soften up they're done. (4) Open the silver packet of magic ramen dust, and pour into the still boiling water.  Use a long spoon or spatula to stir them until the dust is fully dissolved.  This should only take maybe 30 seconds or so.  Once the flavor packet dust is dissolved, turn off the heat.  If you're fully ghetto, like we were back in the 90's, grab a fork and head into the living room to watch TV while you eat out of the pot.  Since the pot is still hot, don't set it directly on the coffee table or couch.  Put an old porno mag or piece of wood under it, to keep from burning the furniture.  If you're not ghetto, pour ramen into a good sized ceramic bowl, and eat.  Enjoy.  

Ramen with frozen vegetables- Add some frozen vegetables, like peas, corn, carrots, lima beans, mixed vegetables or whatever, while cooking.  You'll have to experiement a bit to figure out just when to add them to the boiling water, so they heat up, but don't over cook.  

Ramen with fresh or canned vegetables- Got some fresh veggies in the fridge?  Or a can or two in the cupboard?  Carrots, celery, corn, peas, onions, and potatoes could all work well.  I think I've done this a couple of times.  In my case, I'd fry some celery or onions in a pan with a bit of oil, so they're partially cooked, but still crisp.  Then add them into the cooking ramen while it's boiling, right before adding the seasoning packet.  Boil for another minute or so, while stirring.  You could also nuke veggies in a microwave, or just add canned veggies.  Experiment, see what tastes good.  For potatoes, nuke them in the microwave for a 2-4 minutes, cut into small pieces, then add into soup right before adding the flavor packet, and boil for a minute or so.  

Ramenetti- I did this one quite a bit in back in the early 90's.  Basically it's spaghetti with ramen noodles, when you're too broke to go buy pasta, but have ramen packs and spaghetti sauce in the fridge.  Cook the ramen noodles until done, then drain them in a strainer.  Heat up spaghetti sauce in a pot, and pour on top of noodles on a plate when done.  You can also add cooked hamburger, make meatballs if you know how, or fry up some vegetables to add in.  I like to chop onions and green (bell) peppers in big chunks, and fry them in butter with some basil added in.  Sautee' until cooked but crisp, then add on top of the ramen noodles and sauce.  Low budget epic goodness.  

Ramen noodles with butter and lemon pepper- Cook the ramen noodles until done, and then strain.  Put them on a plate.  Then melt some butter in a pot on low heat, and shake in a bunch of lemon pepper (find it in the spice aisle).  Just get the butter melted, and stir the lemon pepper, then pour over the noodles, and mix them up with a fork.  If you've never made this, you'll be surprised how freakin' good this simple dish tastes.  Lemon pepper is also good on chicken, halibut, and probably a bunch of other things I don't know how to cook.  

Stoned Soup- This is one to cook if you live with a bunch of roommates.  If you've never heard of the children's book Stone Soup, check it out here.  I got this idea when living in a house full of BMXers back in the early 90's, where half of the guys smoked weed.  I was going to write my own version of the story, in a world with lots of roommates who were stoners.  But I never got around to writing it.  The basic idea is to cook a big pot of ramen, and everyone throws something into the mix.  A couple people put in a couple packs of ramen each, others donate a carrot, potato, onion, other veggies, rice, maybe hamburger, and maybe something for desert.  No stones necessary, just hungry stoners and non-stoner friends.  Cook up whatever people donate to the cause, and everyone eats well.  Poof!  Stoned Soup.  I actually ate real stone soup, cooked with actual stones, at a church I went to in North Carolina.  An actual chef, a member of the church, led the cooking crew.  It really was good.  

Ramen stew- Cook up ramen noodles, and strain them.  In another pot, heat up a can of Dinty Moore, or similar, beef stew.  Mix the stew in with the noodles, and chow down.  For a large group, more ramen noodles, and more cans of stew.

Crunchy ramen stew- Remember above when I wrote that I had an actual prison meal cooked by a former convict?  This is it.  One day, while I was homeless back in 2008, I ran into a Harley biker guy.  He asked if I was homeless, and if I wanted a place to stay for a night or two.  It turned out to be a Christian biker house, where most of the people living there had done time for one thing or another, then became religious, and turned their lives around.  Several had overcome drug issues.  They lived together, an informal group, devoted to helping the group, and other people coming from similar situations.  The cook for that night was a guy nicknamed Little Man, as I recall.  He made a huge pot of ramen stew, like I described above.  But right before serving it, he took a big bag of flaming hot Doritos, crunched them up inside the bag, then poured the bag into the stew.  He stirred it around, and the chips added some crunch and heat to the stew.  There was plenty for the ten or so people living in that house, and me, the guest of the night.  I stayed there for one night, and was asked if I was interested in becoming part of the group.  I said that it wasn't exactly my scene, and moved on.  They were a cool group, and not officially affilated with a particular church.  And several were still bikers.  But it was a cool night, I reapp appreciated their hospitality, and I learned how to make Little Man's Crunchy Ramen Stew.  Personally, I think I would go with Frito's, or tortilla chips, if I made it.  I'm not big on super hot chips.  If you make this, try any kind you like, and see how it tastes.  

Chili ramen- This is the same idea as the ramen stew above, but instead of beef stew, use a can of chili.  Cook the ramen noodles, and strain them.  Heat up a can of stew in another pot, and mix the noodles into the chili, and eat up.  Yummy goodness.  Saltine crackers optional.  

Ramen broasted taters- This is my own invention, and I've never heard of anyone else doing it.  I would often cook two packs of ramen, usually chicken or beef, but only use flavor packet.  So I wound up with a few extra flavor packets in the cupboard.  One day I got creative.  For these, take a couple of potatoes, and cut out the eyes.  Then nuke them in the microwave, whole, for about 2 1/2 to 3 minutes.  Then take them out, and cut them into big wedges.  It helps to have an oven mitt to hold the hot potatoes while cutting them.  You can cut them first, but it never seems to work quite as well.  Then open a chicken ramen flavor packet, and sprinkle the powder on the inside, cut faces of the potato, not the peel.  Rub the powder around with your finger, so it covers those cut parts.  Then put the potato wedges on plate, peel side down, and put back into the microwave for 1 to 1 1/2 minutes.  The ramen powder makes a coating on the potatoes, and when done right, they taste a lot like broasted potato wedges.  You may have to play with cooking times, to find what works best with your microwave.  

So there are some good meals, that are freakin' cheap to make, based on packs of ramen.  Take these ideas, experiment, use your own creativity, and see what you come up with.  There are lots more ideas online these days, once you get the basics down.  These ideas may help you get through some lean times in the coming recession, or maybe just for fun.  One more good thing about eating a lot of ramen, it makes you appreciate when you have enough money to eat better food.  At least for a while.  Enjoy!



The L.A. Project- happening in October


 I don't usually share or promote things that come up on Facebook ads, but this one looks pretty cool.  The L.A. Project is an event on the evening of October 23, 2022.  They're going to project a bunch of photos of downtown Los Angeles, shot by 34 different photographers, on to the side of a building.  The tickets are free, and there will be "food trucks, fun, and theater style seating."  Sounds like a cool night in my book.  Click the link to check it out.  

I picked a few names at random, and looked up their stuff.  Seriously, they take some great pics.  Now I want to go.  Maybe I'll see you there.  




Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Recession: What's coming in September 2022?


This is one of the best minds on the economy around, Chamath Palihapitiya.  This talk by him, about 11 minutes, is from a few weeks ago, but goes into the macroeconomic picture in the world today, going back to the Great Recession of 2007-2009.  There are some unrelated photos edited over most of this, but the audio is solid.  


I've been writing about a long, sticky, major economic downturn for about 3 1/2 years now.  The trends I have been watching for many years, began to merge, suggesting really crazy times ahead.  I've grown to be pretty good at forecasting the coming econmic climate, but haven't been able to build a business to take advantage of the trends I've seen building.  I'm a broke homeless guy now, and it's easy to make the case I have no clue what I'm talking about, despite some pretty solid predictions over the last couple of years.  I've been watching and studying financial markets, and several long term social trends that affect them, for 30 years now.  This, right now, is the biggest part of the downturn we're heading into, in my opinion.  I think the rest of 2022, 2023, and 2024 will be the craziest years of this recession and in business and financial worlds.  But I don't want you to take my word for it.  

In this post, I'm putting several links of talks and interviews by actual, respectable, mostly really wealthy, investors, econmists, and economic analysts.  What they're all saying in the last month or two is getting pretty similar.  Check out any of these that interest you, and their thoughts on this recession.  This will give you a better picture of where we're at, to gain a much better understanding of what's happening now, and what will likely happen in September 2022, and the months and years beyond.  











These are a few of the best minds in economics, investing, and business in todays world.  These are only a few of the many people sharing similar ideas, in the last few weeks and months, and are ones I believe really have some solid thoughts to share.  

If you want to get an idea of the future of the financial markets and business climate, look at the best minds looking forward, who actually run a business or have a history of making money actually investing (not trading). Generally speaking, they see asset bubbles and more pain ahead financially.  But that also means there are amazing bargains coming, at some point, when stocks, crypto, real estate, precious metals, and other assets hit bottom.  

But for most people, recessions mean a struggle to pay bills, with credit card, car/truck, student, and home debt, that they owe, becoming a much bigger issue than in good economic times.  Most people struggle through recessions, some worrying about losing jobs, finding a new job when they get laid off, and cutting back on expenses at home.  For some reason, few average people want to think about a coming recession, much less prepare for one, yet there will always be another one before long.  

One huge thing that is different about 2022, compared to previous recessions, is we now have the internet, and in particularYouTube, many popular platforms of social media, and all kinds of people doing research and putting out information about what is happening in the financial and business worlds.  The internet was around in 2007-08, but we didn't have the huge amount of content creators we have now, and social media was still pretty new to most people.  The level of communication between people now means that there are far more smart minds out there, researching, thinking, and talking about what's going on, than during the Great Recession.  

Yes, we had the recession of 2020, technically a short depression, but the pandemic caused downturn, and The Fed's response, kept it from being the recession it should have been.  Things got all out of whack with $5-6 trillion of new money flooding the economy, and millions of people turning into Stimulus Ballers for a while.  So now we get the more traditional recession that should have happened then, with high inflation heading in, as an added bonus.  

The level of good information available, and our hyper-connected level of communcation with each other now will change the way this recession plays out.  Yes, there is a lot of bad information out there, but there is also a lot of good information out there.  When you watch videos or read blogs and articles, look at someone's background.  If they're older, and have been successful at business or investing through several recessions, like Ray Dalio, Jim Rogers, Robert and Kim Kiyosaki, and Nomi Prins, in the videos above, they usually have some solid advice and thoughts.  Don't believe every word they say, but take a successful background as a sign that they have learned a lot over the years.  When several established business people start saying very similar things about where the economy is going, then it's smart to take them pretty seriously.  Then do your own thinking.  Check with other experts, see what they say.  This will help give you a better idea of the Big Picture of the world of investments and business, and hopefully help you make better decisions in your life.  That's the point here.  

This blog post, and all of mine about business, economics, and investments, is for your entertainment and education, and should not be taken as investment advice.  My full Disclaimer for this blog is linked above.  





Monday, August 29, 2022

Joe Brown's 5 Step Plan to Fix America


Joe Brown has an incredible working knowledge of the current economic world that comes through in his videos.  While I would have to see more details to totally back this plan, it's a great place to start the conversation.  I totally agree with the underlying themes of his plan, which is to cut out bloated parts of the goverment, and force people, businesses, institutions, and local/state governments, to be more responsible economically.  

Coming from, me, a guy who has spent a long time homeless, I know that sounds totally hypocritial.  But his plan would defund many of the douchebags of the current system, who live off organizations doing mediocre work for huge government contracts or subsidies.  That would free up trillions of dollars to actually flow through the real world, everyday economy.  That would help myself and all kinds of other people who have run into corruption, red tape, and other bullshit currently alive and thriving in the system, things that have made it harder to make a decent living.  

It would also siphon trillions of dollars away from busniesses, cities, and towns that are highly dependent on government contracts, that are not in the best interest of the country as a whole.  This plan would wind up with a huge part of both businesses and local governments in rural, small town, and small city America going bankrupt.  But those areas would be a bargain then, and attract and embolden the creative and hardworking people in those regions that have new ideas, to rebuild their town, city or area in today's fast changing world.  I firmly believe that the people needed to rebuild every struggling town or city are already in those towns and cities.  In most cases they are simply held back by whatever local, entrenched network runs the show now.  

I've spent 28 of my 56 years in small towns and small to mid-sized cities, in five states, spread across the U.S..  Most of those places are currently run by people working with outdated ideas.  They may or may not be very corrupt, and most are probably reasonably decent people.  But they're running on the ideas and with the small cliques of people that worked 30-40 years ago, and haven't fully adopted to today's technological and social realities.  

And while we're at it, what if the U.S. Senate actually represented the U.S. population, and not arbitrary boundaries from 100-300 years ago.  There are nearly 330 million people in the U.S., so each senator should represent about 3.3 million people.  Here in California, we have 39 million people, a huge state, a huge economy, and two senators.  Across the country, dinky Rhode Island has a tiny area of land, a much smaller economy, and 1.1 million people.  We have multiple counties in California that are larger than Rhode Island in area, some which also have more people.  

San Bernadino County is 8 or 9 times the size of Rhode Island, AND has twice as many people.  Nothing against Rhode Island, they just happen to be the smallest state to use for comparison.  The point is, redstricting the U.S. Senate, as fair as possible, would even out the representation to actual people, and much more accurately represent the U.S. population, which would have enormous positive effects on this country going forward.  

If you watch this video, let me know your thoughts on Facebook or Twitter.  This plan isn't perfect but it's a great place to start the conversation on jumpstarting America as a functional democratic republic again.  

Friday, August 26, 2022

So... the Dow was down 1,000 points today- 8/26/2022

 

CNBC Dow Jones Industrial Average page after close today, August 26, 2022. 

You guys all sold out of this last false hope rally a week or two ago, right?  Again, here's my March 2022 blog post, on the old blog, with my thoughts on the economy for 2022.  This year, 2022, is the year of big change.  2023 will be the "I'll take Things That Suck for $1,200, Alex" year.  Unless you pay attention to this stuff, and have some cash.  Then you'll be able to get insane deals on all kinds of assets in late 2022 and 2023.  

My March 2022 predictions for stocks were Dow- will drop below 27,000 in 2022, Nasdaq- will drop below 10,000 in 2022, and S&P 500- will drop below 3,500 in 2022.  I'm sticking with the predictions in that post from March.  I also wrote about interest rates, and a couple of other things.  Here's Joe Brown from Heresy Financial with his take on today's remarks by Jay Powell of The Fed, from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that sent the markets plunging.  Yes, today's market numbers are still quite a ways from my predictions, but they're 3%-4% closer than they were this morning.  

In other financial news, September 6th has been set for the beginning of the Ethereum Merge, which will switch it from a Proof of Work blockchain into a Proof of Stake blockchain.  Ethereum, due to the ability to create smart contracts, and build apps on it (like NFT's, for example), is far more useful than Bitcoin.  With the Merge, providing everything goes well, Ethereum will use something like 99% less energy to operate.  How will this evolve in the future?  That remains to be seen.  But it sets Ethereum up as the top blockchain with smart contracts and other functions.  So The Merge is just something to keep an eye on, if you are interested in crypto and NFT's.  

How parking lots changed my life


This is the Huntington Beach Street Scene, produced by the Godfather of BMX himself, Scot Breithaupt, way back in 1989.  Goofy as this show looks now, it was the very first BMX street contest to appear on TV, only about a year after Ron Wilkerson's first Meet the Street contest, in 1988.  And yes, that's me in the blue Vision shirt, and Randy Lawrence (now a legendary motocross mechanic/trainer, and Ryder's dad) in the white, in the intro.  This came out Six years before the X-Games.  


Parking lots.  Large paved areas to park cars, outside of grocery stores, malls, discount stores, restaurants, and anywhere else we park cars and trucks to go buy something.  Seen one parking lot, you've seen them all, right?  Not if you're a BMX freestyler or skateboarder.  When I first got into BMX in 1982, and started learning early flatland tricks, my friends and I road mostly in the streets in front of our houses.  As one of the first wave of flatland freestylers, inspired by magazine photos of the originators like Bob Haro, R.L. Osborn and Mike Buff, Martin Aparijo, Woody Itson, a few hundred kids acorss the U.S. started seeking out empty patches of asphalt or concrete to practice our tricks.  For me, it was the streets in the trailer park, then by our house in Boise, then playground area of a school, after everyone had left for the day.  After a move to San Jose, California in 1985, the end of the local grocery store parking lot near our house, and the paved area at my sister's high school, Del Mar High.  

Jeff Cotter with a pop tart (jump up to) bar ride in Redondo Beach, in a parking lot in Redondo Beach in 1990.

To us freestylers, and a few skateboarders practicing flat ground tricks, every parking lot began to have its own unique characteristics.  This one is angled on one end, but flat beside the store,  This one has a bank to wall on one side.  That one is really old and rough.  As a couple thousand of us dorky, 1980's flatlanders began practicing tricks, and inventing new ones, we became connoisseurs of fine parking lots.  Yes, I realize how fucking stupid that sounds.  But when you're rolling on one wheel on a bike, balancing on a peg, frame, or seat, a smooth, flat piece of asphalt makes all the difference in the world.  We began to seek out the best parking lots in our different areas, around the U.S., and a few places around the world.  Was it smooth, flat, and level?  Did it have annoying security guards, like many office buildings did.  Were there any street spots nearby, like banks or ledges or loading docks?  Was there a fast food jonit close to get drinks, and chill out after two or three hours of riding?  Certain parking lots rose above the others to become our local flatland spots.  

We got to know the local shop owners, homeless people, and people who stumbled by drunk and said, "I used to ride for Redline in the 70's."  We all had our flatland spots, and we spent hundreds of hours there, maybe over 1,000 hours... in a certain parking lot, every year.  They were our training grounds.  We learned to deal with the pain of gouged shins from slipped pedals in those parking lots.  We learned that our mental state had a huge affect on pulling our tricks in those lots.  We pushed ourselves, night after night, to improve and progress as riders, in those pakring lots.  We became really good at something, in those parking lots.  We tried to pick up girls who drove by, and got rejected because we were BMXers, in those parking lots.  We grew into different people, trick by trick, night by night, in our favorite parking lots.  We learned skills that took us to contests and shows around the region, the country, and in some cases, around the world, in those parking lots.  We learned that we could amuse ourselves for an hour, doing endo variations on a single parking block, in those parking lots.  Or paved schoolyards.  Or parking garages (for the northern guys in the winter).  
Eddie Roman doing Eddie Roman stuff, in a schoolyard in 1990.  He produces religious videos now.  

Starting with Bob Haro and a few others in the late 1970's and early 1980's, BMX freestylers, flatlanders in particular, but also street riders, grew into a different kind of person, in parking lots.  The Taco Bell/carwash parking lot you see us riding in that clip above was one of our spots, in the late 1980's.  I rode there, and later Andy Mulcahy, Joe "Red" Goodfellow, and the other guys, whose names I forget now, rode there nightly.  That spot is at Bolsa Chica and Heil in Huntington Beach.  There's a Starbucks where the gas station on the corner used to be, but Taco Bell and the DIY car wash are still there, 34 years after that video was shot.  Not only did my acting debut happen at one of my spots, but I learned to stay behind the camera afterwards.  Thousands of hours spent in parking lots, doing goofy tricks (to most people in the 1980's), riding a "little kid's bike," led me into a creative sport that changed my life, and it changed me.  I published zines, got more into shooting photos, became a writer, and later a video cameraman and video producer, because of the thousands of hours I spent in parking lots, learning to do tricks on a BMX bike.  Stupid as it sounds, parking lots helped change the course of my life.  Since this blog is about my "street life," I knew I had to give some props to all the parking lots, and similar places, that were my training grouns for BMX freestyle 30-35 years ago.  
Here's Dan Hubbard in 1990, doing a front wheel 360 on his wedge ramp, in a parking lot in Redondo Beach, overlooking the Pacific Ocean.  Dan announces the Supercross races now.  

What was the best thing to come out of all those hours spent riding and goofing around in parking lots?  The overall best thing, for me, was just to come to grips with the fact that I'm a guy who likes to create things.  35 years ago it might have been a unique variation or a new trick.  Then I created zines.  I shot a bunch of photos, which I published in zines, and a few made it into real magazines.  Then came videos, which lead to being a crew guy on TV shows later.  The biggest thing was that BMX helped me realize that I'm a writer at heart.  I've now been published in about 40 zines, 7 magazines, one newsletter, and over 2,500 of my own blog posts in the last 13 years.  

The other great thing about getting into BMX freestyle, and spending all those years in parking lots was all the cool, weird, creative, and amazing people I've met along the way.  Like this guy, and this guy, and this guy.  I met this guy in a parking lot, at 3162 Kashiwa Street in Torrance, California.  Later because of video work, I worked with this woman, and this guy (on the left) and this woman (on the right, on her first TV show) and even this guy, and many, many others, because I started spending time, learning bike tricks, in parking lots, in 1982.  One thing led to another, then to another.  So why am I a fat, broke, homeless loser writing a blog in a library now?  Apparently it's because I'm lazy, unmotivated, and not all that bright.  Or something like that.  What can I say, life is weird.  It's not just me, every one of us who started learning BMX tricks in parking lots, and got serious with it, had it lead to all kinds of adventures, and meeting a whole bunch of different people we wouldn't have met otherwise.  

So here's a toast to the lowly parking lot, which can be a lot more than a place to park your car while you go buy food that goes up in price every 30 seconds.  Cheers.    

Thursday, August 25, 2022

Where the housing market is right now nationwide: Adam Taggart interviews Nick Gerli


If you have read my blogs on a regular basis, you know I've been writing about a crazy economic downturn that I saw coming, for 3-4 years now.  OK, now we're almost two years into the craziness, now heading into what I believe will be the worst couple of years of this decade (late 2022 through mid 2024).  

Real estate has been insane for two years, through the pandemic, for several reasons.  It seems to be beginning to head back down, towards some sense of reality now.  This 44 minute video is the best I've seen that shows an overall look where the residential real estate market is right now.  Nick Gerli digs into the realtime data, and explains what that's telling us.  If you have any interest in real estate right now, or over the next year or two, watch this video.  This is part 2 of this interview, here's Part 1, which is on Nick's channel, Reventure Consulting.  In Part 1, they go more into the macro economic trends happening, and this video above focuses more on residential real estate in the various areas of the U.S. right now, late August 2022.  

Dakota Roche- Native Land BMX street riding edit


This is my favorite of the Dakota Roche edits out there.  If you're into BMX street riding, you know Dakota has been killing it for a really long time.  Watch this video.  Then go ride.  

Way back in about 2002 (or so), I caught a ride with Barspinner Ryan, Freddy Chulo, Athene, and little Armando to a BMX event called the Nasty Jam.  Cory "Nasty" Nastazio had a BMX dirt jumping jam in conjunction with a mototcycle race, way the fuck up in Gorman.  If you aren't from Southern California, Gorman is a little town with big hills up near Magic Mountain amusement park.  If you are from Southern California, you probably still haven't heard of Gorman, it's up on the Grapevine, north of L.A. and the San Fernando Valley.  As California goes, it's the middle of freakin' nowhere.  The only other time I had been up there is to go target shooting with a friend in the early 90's, other than driving through on my way to NorCal.

It was a fun day watching some top dirt jumpers huck it over a single big jump, watching some motorcycle races, and a cool band that played at the end.  Then we all headed back in town to a really good burger place afterwards.  The woman who helped Cory put on the jam (sorry, forget her name) had a son.  He was 14 or 15, and was talking to the pro riders at the dinner as we all ate.  In the room were Cory Nastazio, Stephen Murray, Barpsinner Ryan Brennan, Freddy Chulo, Reuel Erickson, and several other top BMX jumpers.  The kid told all the riders he was going to be a big time pro, like them, someday.  All the riders were cool, and told him to go for it.  As you figured out by now, that kid was Dakota Roche.  

Obviously he kept riding, and got pretty buff along the way.  I saw him 3 or 4 times after the Nasty Jam, riding in Orange County, still a young up and comer, but definitely getting better every time I saw him.  He's been riding hard, pushing the limits, and innovating every since.  As an old Has Been BMX industry guy, and Never Was  rider, his video parts are some of my favorites to check out these days.  All his edit are worth checking out, but the combination of tricks, obstacles, editing, and music make this one my personal favorite.  So give it a watch, and then go ride.  

Wednesday, August 24, 2022

George Carlin's solution to homelessness- from the 1980's


The late great George Carlin with a solution to homelessness that he came up with in the 1980's.  It's Carlin, so that means NSFW, and a fair amount of profanity.  So don't watch this at work, unless you work some place pretty cool. 
 
I'll let this bit speak for itself, but I just want to remind everyone that 2022 is the 20th anniversary of the 10 Year Plan to End Homelessness.  What did that give us?  MORE HOMELESS PEOPLE!  Carlin saw it coming, 30-some years ago.  Enjoy this hilarious comedy piece.

What George Carlin didn't see coming, was that The 10 Year Plan to End Homelessness actually seems to have been the 10 year plan to monetize homelessness.  Los Angeles has been spending $400 million a year on homelessness, and now plans to spend $3 billion over the next five years.  San Francisco has $1.1 billion to spend on homelessness.  Seattle is set to spend $173 million on homelessness this year.  Contrary to mainstream media reports, homelessness is not just a West Coast problem, New York City is set to spend $2.1 billion on homelessness.  

So obviously, someone has figured out how to make homelessness profitable for someone.  That $6.2 billion spent across four large cities, and all the rest spent elsewhere, doesn't go into homeless people's hands.  But it does go somewhere.  Where those hundreds of millions of dollars have been going in recent years, it hasn't made much of a dent in the number of people on the streets.  Neither did Covid (sorry folks, most of us bums survived).  I know there were a lot of civic leaders secretly hoping the pandemic would take half of the homeless (like me) out.  Apparently God, The Universe, or whatever higher power you may believe in, had other plans.  

My quick point here is that homelessness is now a growth industry, and somebody, somewhere is making a killing off of it.  But it doesn't seem to be permanently housing very many people yet.  Don't believe me?  Here's one of the winners in the homeless industry game, Pallet.  They make "tiny homes," which are really prefab tool sheds for the homeless, wired for electricity.  Their business has gone up 7,000%, over the last couple of years.  And who owns Pallet?  Well, it's not a bunch of Left Wing Liberal do-gooders, that's all I'll say.  

If you're beginning to get the idea where all these billions of dollars are going, you're probably Right.  Don't get me wrong, small, prefab buildings could play a significant role in the solution to getting thousands of people off the streets, if done well.  Or it could mean a city pays $17,000 to $55,000 (actual prices I've seen mentioned) for tool sheds they could buy at Home Depot for $4,000 each (which are 50% bigger than the "tiny homes").  Then they group these into what is essentially a crackhead and tweeker trailer park, with 100-200 people stealing from each other and sharing communal showers, all paid for with your tax dollars and inflation money.  

We can do better.  That's what I'm saying.  I'll have more of my thoughts on actual, real world, pragmatic solutions to homelessness in future blog posts.  But for now, homelessness is a growth industry and a cash cow for what appears to be mostly one side of the political spectrum.  And there are still tens of thousands on the streets.  I do really like Carlin's idea of the golf courses, though.  Add some native plants to the idea, and we could save a lot of water, now being wasted, since we're in such a major drought out west now.  But that's a whole different issue, for another day.  As one last bonus, here's Robin Williams on golf, another great comedy bit from the 80's (90's?), also NSFW.  

Tuesday, August 23, 2022

Welcome to Dystopia: The Future is Now- my first "book"


The Blade Runner movie trailer, from 1982, featuring a very young Harrison Ford.  The futuristic movie, released two years before the first Apple Macinstosh computer came out, was Ridley Scott's vision of the future.  The movie was set in Los Angeles in November 2019, as you can see in the slate at the very beginning.  


In October of 2019, I woke up one morning with a writing idea.  I had a whole bunch of somewhat interconnected ideas bouncing around my head, about where society was heading.  As an amateur futurist and economics geek, I had been watching a bunch of different trends playing out in society, some for nearly 30 years.  They all seemed to be converging, coming together.  That made me think that the new decade we were heading into, the 2020's, was going to be one of the craziest decades in a really, really long time.  

The idea I woke up with that October morning was that I should go through 20 or 30 of the dystopian future movie trailers from the 1960's, 1970's, and 1980's.  I would look at how those writers and directors envisioned the future of human society, and compare it with what society then, in late 2019, was really like.  What did the writers and directors of 30-40-50 years ago get right?  What did they get wrong?  That was my starting point.  

So I did that, the best I could, since Life had decided to kick my ass for the first couple of decades of the 21st century, and I was homeless.  I woke up with that big idea, while sleeping in a restaurant parking lot in the San Fernando Valley, right over the hill from Hollywood.  I had a laptop, so I started going through those trailers for futuristic movies and watching them, starting with Metropolis from 1927, and ending with The Hunger Games and Alita: Battle Angel, from 2019.  What surprised me most was that those really intelligent writers and directors got the future mostly wrong.  I also learned that Blade Runner was set in the time and place that I was writing this idea.  That was a really synchronistic.  In November 2019, the biggest problem wasn't rogue replicants killing people, like in Blade Runner, it was homelessness, according to an L.A. Times poll that month.  Big difference.  And no flying cars, either.

Being really broke, I bought a paper notebook, and began writing my rough ideas out in late October 2019, and I kept that up, as they started to come together, through November and December of 2019.  As all those jumbled up ideas of our future began to gel in my head, I wasn't sure what to do with them.  A book?  Self-published or try to get it published by a real publisher?  Maybe a screenplay?  I was in the middle of the "real" Hollywood (Burbank, Studio City, North Hollywood), where most movies actually get made.  There was a need to hurry building in me.  Something that in my intuition told me to just get these ideas out where people can read them, as soon as possible.  There was an urgency to the project.  So on December 21st, 2019, I built a blog, called "Welcome to Dystopia: The Future is Now- Book 1."  At the time, it was beginning to seem like this big idea could be a series, leading to a "book 2" later on. 

I built the blog, with placeholder photos in each chapter, so it would be in order when people went to read it.  If I just wrote it as a blog, the chapters would be in backwards order.  That's why I pre-built the whole blog, so I could write each chapter later, and then delete any unneeded chapters, and have them in order.  I thought I might have 10 or 11 ideas for chapters at the time.  But I built the blog with 20 chapters, figuring I would probably come up with a couple of new ideas as I was writing.  I began writing chapter 1 at the end of December 2019, and just kept going, putting out a chapter or two each week.  More ideas did pop up, and I filled up all 20.  

As I was writing "Dystopia," Covid-19 came into the picture as "something happening over in China."  Then it hit U.S. shores when I was about halfway through Dystopia.  Then we were told it was no big deal by the White House.  Then it became apparent that it was a big deal, and the stock market crashed, lockdowns happened, and 2020 became the craziest year most people could remember.  Until 2021 came along, anyhow.  

This whole series of ideas, more of a series of essays than a coherent book, make a lot more sense now.  My nickname for this decade, "The Tumultuous 2020's," makes more sense now as well.  I still think these underlying themes in "Dystopia" are playing out, fueling the surface chaos we all have to deal with, like inflation and a another recession (depression?), at the moment.  

While my "book/blog thing" is by no means a hit, it's pulled in over 2,600 page views, over the 20 chapters, in 2 1/2 years.  For as intense of reading as it is, that's not bad.  Since so much of my underlying thinking is in "Dystopia," which feeds many of the posts in this blog, I figured it was time to link it here, so anyone interested can go check it out.  Each chapter is fairly self-contained, and can be read alone.  This post is just a sign post, to let people know this big chunk of my thinking and writing, from the beginning of 2020, is out there, for any who might be interested.  Click the link above to take a look.  

Monday, August 22, 2022

The Iceman- Doing something worthwhile at The Rodeo Chedeski Fire of 2002- Part 1


This is a short news report from this summer (2022), about the 20th anniversary of the horrific Rodeo-Chedeski forest fire.  The massive fire, which devestated the White Mountains area of northwest Arizona, happened in the summer of 2002.  I went there to help out for a while, and I volunteered with the Red Cross in the cities of Holbrook and Heber-Overgaard.  This is a little chapter of my life I mentioned to a couple of people, but I've never told this full story to anyone in 20 years.  Now seems like the right time.

We all have stories in our past that we keep to ourselves, for one reason or another.  In many cases, it may be something really bad you did, like that one night you got wasted, hooked up with three transgender dwarves, a circus clown, a contortionist, and woke up the next morning by the 5 freeway, surrounded by mule hoof prints and chocolate sprinkles.  OK, that's a bit excessive, and I"m biting a George Carlin joke there, but most people have had some wild nights they never talk about.  There's usually a good reason to keep quiet.  Word has it that dwarves never forget.  

But a lot of people also have good stories, that for one reason or another, they have never shared.  This is a story of a month of my life that I've never talked about.  I'm reading Carmine Gallo's book, The Storyteller's Secret, right now.  A chapter I read last night reminded me of this adventure in my life, and I realized this is the 20 year anniversary of that summer, so I might as well tell the story.  

In June of 2002, I was coming up on my 36th birthday, and living in a tiny room in Garden Grove, that a Latino family had built on the side of their house.  I was working at an adult book store, a porn shop, that I had worked at two or three times, since 1993.  When I couldn't find another job, they would hire me for a while.  As much fun as it may sound to work "in the porn industry," the reality is it was pretty depressing at that point.  You just can't crack jokes with guys buying penis pumps or inflatable love dolls.  I knew I needed a change.  

A couple years earlier, my Datsun 280 ZX got towed for parking tickets, which really bummed me out.  I was working as a taxi driver then, in 2000, and renting a room in inland Huntington Beach.  Then, right before Christmas that year, my driver's license got suspended, apparently due to a clerical error at the DMV.  A traffic fine I had paid months earlier suddenly flagged as having not been paid.  I didn't have a receipt to prove I paid it, and I had paid it in cash.  My license was suspended.  No driver's license, no taxi driver job.  So I lost my car and my job in 2000, and had to repay the fine, and some fees, to get my license back.  With no income, I couldn't pay the fine.  My life went into a downward spiral, without and drugs or drinking involved, just weird circumstances.  I bounced around odd jobs, like telemarketing and restaurant work, and lived homeless for almost a year.  After that, I wound up back working at the porn store.  

As I pondered my miserable life at the time, I kept seeing stories on TV of these two huge forest fires in Arizona, the Rodeo Fire and the Chedeski Fire.  Not long after making the news, the two fires burned together, creating a super forest fire.  It was on the news every night.  In my own life, in Garden Grove, more than anything, I just wanted to do something worthwhile in the world at that point.  I wanted to make some kind of a difference, in some way.  It didn't have to be anything amazing or earth shattering, I just wanted to do something where it was obvious, to myself, that I was making some part of the world a bit better, in some way.  

One night, watching the news about what had become Arizona's biggest forest fire, I had an idea.  What if I just hopped on a bus to Arizona, and helped out at that crazy fire?  I could find the Red Cross place where many of the 30,000+ displaced people were staying, and help out for a few days, or maybe a couple of weeks.  Then I could probably find paying work loading trucks or something for the fire crews.  Something like that.  It would be a change of pace, and it would definitely be worthwhile to help out at this huge fire.  

So I paid up my rent for the next month, packed a few clothes in my little backpack, and took a city bus to the Greyhound Station.  I had enough money to buy a ticket to somewhere in Arizona, I think it was like $110, something like that.  I didn't know where people were evacuating to.  I was totally winging it.  I looked at a map, and picked Holbrook, Arizona to go to.  That seemed like the most likely place people fleeing the fire would go, about 40 miles from Show Low, which was being evacuated.  I bought a one way ticket, and I would have about $20 or so when I got there.  I didn't have enough money to get back to California.  But it just seemed like something I had to do.  

So I hopped on the bus, and headed off to the small town of Holbrook, Arizona.  I had no real plan.  I didn't know how I would get back.  I didn't know if that was even the right city to go to.  It was one of the first times in my life that I really took a leap of faith, and just went for it.  The bus ride took several hours, and I got off the bus in Holbrook around noon, in late June, 2002.  I think it was about June 23rd or 24th, when I went there, I remember the two fires had just burned together.  It was about 105 or 110 degrees out.  I could see smoke way off in the distance, from the huge fire, but it was a bright, sunny day.  I thought, "What the hell did I just do?"  

The Rodeo-Chedeski fire was two huge forest/brush fires that combined, ultimately burning over 468,000 acres.  That's a little over 732 square miles of burned area.  To put that into perspective, that's quite a bit larger than the entire city of Los Angeles, at 501 sqare miles, but smaller than Orange County, California, which is 948 square miles.  The Rodeo Fire was started on June 18, 2000, by an out of work man, hoping to earn some money on the fire crews.  He was later charged.  The Chedeski fire was started on June 20, by a woman who reportedly got lost while riding a quad.  She was not charged, though years later, there was a civil case against her.  The two huge fires, driven by dry conditions and high winds, burned together over June 21-22. 2000.  The combined fire had a perimeter of over 200 miles at times, and the plume of smoke could be seen from space, driftng from Arizona all the way to Oklahoma.  Around 40,000 people, mostly from the towns of Show Low and Heber-Overgaard, and surrounding areas, had to evacuate.  Over 400 homes were burned in the fire, which was the largest fire in Arizona history, until 2011.  You can read the technical details on the Wikipedia page.

I asked someone in the mini mart by the bus stop where the Red Cross evacuation site was, and they didn't know.  I still wasn't sure I even had the right city.  The fire was 40 miles or more away.  One of the customers in the store heard me, and asked a couple of other people outside.  Someone told me they were set up at the high school, and gave me directions how to get there.  It was close to a two mile walk, in 105+ degrees.  My backpack was a little day pack, and I was in pretty decent shape then, so I bought a bottle of Gatorade and a bottle of water, and headed to Holbrook High School, across the small city.  When I got there, I saw dozens of cars in the parking lot, and campers on the grass areas and on the baseball field.  I found the gym, walked in and told the first Red Cross volunteer I saw, "Hi, I'm Steve, I'm from California, I'd like to volunteer and help out."  That confused her, since I wasn't an official Red Cross volunteer, she couldn't figure out why someone from California would come across two states to volunteer.  I told her I was in between jobs, and just felt like doing some good somewhere.  She told me to have a seat, and they'd find something for me to do.  

I hung out for an hour or so, then a guy walked in, saying that a truck had just come from Red Cross, and they needed people to help unload it.  So I walked out, got in a line of people, and helped unload a semi truck full of cases of water and other supplies.  We did it bucket brigade style, passing boxes from person to person.  That was how it started for me.  

That night, they told me to sleep on the cots in the gym, which I learned are mostly just set up for the TV news cameras.  Hardly anyone really sleeps on those during disasters.  Most of the time, they can get people in to hotels, or something similar, in the area.  But there were so many people displaced by the Rodeo Chedeski fire, around 40,000 total, and several thousand staying in Holbrook, that the cots were used for people for their first night or two.  

The high school had many students that lived there, being part boarding school, during the school year, so there were 200 beds or more, as I recall, in the dorm building next door.  I wound up staying there afterwards, along with a couple hundred people displaced form the fire.  The next morning, I got up early, ate breakfast with many others in the high school cafeteria, where volunteers were cooking, then took a shower in the locker room, then went to the gym.  I hung out and helped give out water and snacks, and began talking to people as they came in and applied for the help the Red Cross offered to fire victims.  

Even though Holbrook is a relatively poor city, overall, every day people were coming from many miles around to donate items like clothes, toiletries, stuff animals and toys for kids, and even pet food for people's dogs and cats.  Loosely led by the local Red Cross volunteers, I was amazed at how many people were showing up with trunk loads of items to help the people displaced.  I helped unload a lot of cars and trucks that first day, as well as trucks with items that Red Cross was shipping in.  When I got bored, I walked around the campus a bit.  There were people in the dormitory, with women volunteering to cook there, with their own food, for all their families.  There were cars and trucks in the parking lot, with a lot of people staying in their vehicles, despite the heat (they were hardcore Arizona desert people).  There were also dozens of campers, of all kinds, parked on the baseball field and all the grass areas.  There was even a closed down motel, a couple blocks away, that opened all its rooms, despite having no power, to let people stay there.  

As I sat in the gym, by the snacks, I began to meet and talk to the people of the area, both volunteers and the victims of the fire.  One thing people kept asking for was ice.  Most people were buying their own food, or at least snacks, though the Red Cross had people preparing free meals.  But in the summer heat, the local stores ran out of ice, and people didn't want to pay for bag after bag, day after day, not knowing how long they would be camped out, and if they'd even have homes to go back to.  

On my 3rd of 4th day in Holbrook, my BMX guy/punk rock roots kicked in, and the DIY spirit that came with it.  I found a big, green trash can, the kind with wheels, and washed it out really well.  Then I went into the high school's snack bar, which local teen girls had turned into a nursery/play room where they watched small kids while their moms cooked or ran errands.  There was an ice machine in there.  With just a one hand ice scoop, I filled the huge trash can as much as I could, and wheeled it over to the cafeteria part of the dorm building.  The ladies there, mostly Navajo women, thanked me profusely, and sent kids down all the hallways to tell people to bring their coolers, and fill them with ice.  Those women told me to come back at lunch time, they were making "Navajo pizza," which I learned was homemade pizza on frybread.  If anyone ever offers you some, take them up, it was delicious.  I started eating lunch over there almost every day.  

As I was taking the ice to the dorm, someone asked if I could bring some out to the parking lot later, for the people living in their cars.  After checking back in at the gym, to see if they needed me anywhere else, I filled up the big garbage can again, and took ice out to the parking lot.  People were thanking me left and right.  Like the dorm, everyone brought their coolers to where I was, and filled them up.  After taking a break, I filled the garbage can up again, and wheeled it out to the field where the campers were.  After that first day, that became my morning routine, and people came to know me as "The Iceman."  I made three trips with ice every morning, to those three locations, taking a little break in between, to let the ice machine fill back up.  Often one or two of the teen kids helped fill the can with ice, which gave me a break.  

When I wasn't doing that, I would usually head into the gym, and hang out and hand out the snacks.  When trucks came in, I would go help unload them with 20 or 25 other people.  That's what I did, day after day, in Holbrook.  It never got old.  The fire was still not contained, and those 5,000 or so people staying in, and around, the high school, didn't know if their homes had burned down or not.  There was a huge feeling of uncertainty for all of them.  Just not knowing what was going on back in their town or their area was the worst part for many of them.  

Every evening, the head firefighters would come to the high school, and give a talk about where the fire had burned that day, how bad things were, the areas where homes may have burned, and the best infromation they had, to all who wanted to hear.  This was an audio/visual talk, with a big screen and  overhead projector.  We wound up setting up about 30-40 chairs for people who wanted to watch.  Being a former lighting tech in Hollywood a few years earlier, I took the initiative one day to find some duct tape, since no one in the high school had actual gaffer's tape.  I ran the audio lines out to where the equipment was set up each night, and taped them down, the way we did for TV shows, or corporate events, in the entertainment industry.  With that done, the fire fighters could just plug in real quick, and it saved 15 minutes or so of set-up time each night.  That was another random skill that happened to come in handy in Holbrook.  

As the days went on, I found that just sitting and talking to people, about anything but the fire, was also one of the most helpful things.  People were tired, scared, worried, and full of uncertainty.  Telling stories and jokes, and listening to their stories, helped everyone pass the time.  Meanwhile the high school turned into a little, makeshift city of sorts.  Tween and teen girls watched the young kids in the "play room" full of toys, and babysat babies and children in people's campers or area.  The older teens worked to help in the makeshift kennel, a room where people's dogs, cats, rabbits, hamsters, and other pets were kept in cages.  They helped feed, water, walk, and clean up after a few dozen pets.  Some of the adults helped unload trucks, and move items to whomever needed them.  Women throughout the whole area cooked in groups, and watched after each other's kids.  Adults went shopping at local stores for whatever supplies they needed.  Most people left their homes with very little warning, and had left most of their person stuff behind.

We got to know many of the different people who were there, on the high school grounds.  One that gained everyone's respect was a woman named Minnie.  She sat, all day long, in her pick-up truck, with a puppy she called Pup.  She seemed completely unphased by the long days of the heat.  That was true of many of the people there, but Minnie was 90-years-old.  She lived alone in a small house in the mountains, and a neighbor man drove her to Holbrook in her truck, then caught a ride back to get his own.  He kept an eye on Minnie, who had lived a long life of self-sufficiency.  She became one of the best known people on the grounds, and an inspiration to all.  

At one point, the smoke from the fire blew into Holbrook, and the daytime sky turned to a surreal orange.  Most of us got smoke throat, where your throat gets sore and raspy for a few days.   I got a good, double cannister facemask given to me, which helped as I took the ice out, and wandered around outside.  

I think I was in Holbrook for about two weeks, when people from the Show Low area, and the smaller towns of Heber-Overgaard, and the surrounding areas, got the OK, to head back to their homes.  Around 400 homes had burned down in a couple of weeks, The enormous fire was still raging, but contained.  I still hadn't earned any money to get a bus back home, and I knew there was going to be another Red Cross station in Heber-Overgaard, as well as Show Low.  I hitched a ride with a guy to Heber-Overgaard, a place I'd never been to, to continue volunteering there, and to eventually find some work, to earn money for the trip back to California.  After the first day or two in Holbrook, I didn't question my decidion to go volunteer.  I was definitely helping out, doing something worthwhile.  It wasn't hard at all to work all day.  Though nothing I was doing was anything exceptional, just doing normal, everyday things, for people in a really horrible situation, was its own reward.  It was well worth it to make that trip to Holbrook, for me.  And that felt really really cool.  There was no, "Why do I do this every day?" like in so many of our normal job.  The work was helpful and really fulfilling.  It's great to work and be a part of something bigger than yourself.  I didn't have a boss, just people who needed different things done at different times.  When I saw something that needed done, that no one was doing, I could just take the initiative, and make it happen.  With dozens of people doing the same thing, we came together, and helped a huge group of people get through a really tough time in their lives.  I saw the best side of humanity there in Holbrook in those couple of weeks.  That's why I'm finally sharing this story, 20 years later.  With all the chaos in today's world, this post is just a little reminder of the good side of human beings, and what happens when a bunch of people work together for a good reason.

The Heber-Overgaard chapter of the story comes next, I'll continue that part of the story in part 2 of this post.  







Saturday, August 20, 2022

Daniela Cambone interviews Nomi Prins on inflation, The Fed, and our distorted economy


Nomi Prins was one of the first women quants (aka super math geeks) to work on Wall Street, and worked at Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Goldman Sachs in their heyday.  She then got tired of some of the tactics used on Wall Street, and became a self-directed financial journalist, writing several serious books about the economy, and the financial world, in the 21st century.  Her new book, Permanent Distortion is due out in October.*  This interview is very recent (August 16, 2022), and Nomi speaks about inflation, The Fed, and where our financial world may be headed right now.  This is a great look at where we are now, as inflation may be peaking, but is still incredibly high.  Nomi gives incredible insights into inflation the the business climate of the coming months.

*Not a paid link.  

Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Public Art show in Hollywood!

Show #1 of my Urinating in Public Summer Tour is now up and running, somewhere in Hollywood.  Good luck finding it.  Presented by Gallery 5043.  Art shows where bums pee.  It's free, open to the public, and will still probably manage piss someone off.  People get irate about the dumbest things these days.  Photos are from my #SEstreetlife series, many of which appear on this blog.  Show runs until all photos are stolen.  Enjoy!  #SEstreetlife, #steveemigphotos
 

Monday, August 15, 2022

The main theme of this blog: We are in transition


This above, is the world that the Greatest Generation, the Baby Boomers, and my posse, Generation X were born into.  Assembly line jobs defined the 20th century, that was how over half of working Americans earned their living.  To people over about 40 years old, this is the "normal" we grew up with.  The vast majority of people in the U.S., and the industrialized world, worked jobs they hated, but that paid well.  Little thought or creativity was needed, and most jobs were a monotonous grind, day after day.  Workers did their 40 or 50 hours, lived for the weekend, and coped with it, to feed and raise their families.  This, above, is what the late Industrial Age was like, this is what we are still in transition from 

When I was in 8th grade, in 1979, in the small town of Willard, Ohio, we had a "Career Day."  All of us kids in junior high were herded onto buses.  One of our teachers told us, "A few of you may go to college and become doctors, lawyers, or accountants.  But most of you will spend the rest of your lives working in one of the four factories we are going to visit today."  Everyone's heads dropped.  We were all depressed at the idea of being stuck in this tiny little town, working lame jobs, just like our parents, for the rest of our lives.  With very few exceptions, our parents always bitched and moaned about their jobs.  That was life for most people in the Industrial Age.  Jobs paid well, the men worked rote factory or office jobs, and most women stayed home with the kids.  Most families could buy a house, by saving for a few years first, on a single income.  But very, very few people actually liked their jobs.  That was in 1979, the day our school disillusioned all of us kids.  Yeah, the Willard Flashes basketball team kicked ass, and you could water ski at Holiday Lakes, but many of us figured there must be more to life than that.  It wasn't just us kids in Willard thinking that, it was kids and teens all over the country, and other parts of the world.

Every little town had one or more busy factories, all with assembly lines.  Larger towns and cities had many factories.  Pollution from these poured into local rivers, lakes, and harbors.  The Cuyahoga River running through Cleveland,  actually caught on fire for three or four days once, when I was a kid.  The river... water... caught on fire, because it was so polluted.  

The Midwest industrial cities were booming, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and the rest poured out all kinds of products, "Made in America."  The same was true across the U.S., and it was similar in other industrialized nations.  Those products went to warehouses, and then to huge department stores in shopping malls.  That's where our families went on the weekends to buy clothes, tools, car tires, applicances, and big, warm, soft pretzels, which were 39 cents each.  Life moved slow, every small town's Main Street had several bustling, local, "Mom and Pop" businesses.  Most families went on a one or two week vacation each summer.  In Ohio that meant a trip to Lake Erie (Cedar Point) if you were middle class, and Florida if your parents were a bit better off.  When I was a kid, if another kid said they were from Detroit, we thought, "your dad makes MONEY," because the auto plants there were thriving, and paid really well then.

Houses had two phones sharing one line, that the whole family shared.  We had those new, big, color TV's, which had three channels, and a few fuzzy UHF channels to watch.  Most adults had hobbies like bowling, fishing, target shooting, model railroads, ceramics, knitting, or something else they did in their spare time.  People actually had "spare" time.  Think about that one.  Sometimes after dinner on Sunday, my family would go for a "Sunday drive," just drive around the region aimlessly, just for something to do.  Those drives were cool, because it was fresh scenery, and usually ended with an ice cream cone.

But right around the time my classmates and I got disillusioned by "Career Day," something else started happening.  I think it was 1978 when I first heard adults talking about a factory shutting down.  That was unheard of then.  But a company, a whole factory, in nearby Bucyrus, I think, closed down.  All of the workers got laid off.  The owners moved the whole business,  and built a new factory, far away, in a distant land, where people worked for much less money... Alabama.  That was the first I remember hearing of what became known as "outsourcing jobs."  Yes, the early outsourcing of jobs from Midwestern facotry towns and cities, went largely to the American South, then Taiwan, Mexico mequliadoras, and then to places like South Korea, Vietnam, Pakistan, and ultimately, China.  During those same years, the late 1970's to early 2000's, industrial robots and new technology also took millions of Ameircan factory jobs.  

Futurist Alvin Toffler, brainstorming with his wife Heidi, published his second major book, The Third Wave, in 1980.  It forecast that new technologies of many kinds were beginning to completely transform society as we knew it.  The Tofflers explained that we were moving out of an Industrial-based society, and into an information-based society.  Many people read their books.  Many more of us didn't hear of their books until years later, if ever.  It was their 1990 book, Powershift, that first caught my attention.

Things like cable TV, touchtone phones, fax machines, VCR's, home video cameras, and the big one, the Apple Macintosh, and subsequent personal computers, began to completely change the work world in the late 1970's and 1980's, right as us older Generation X kids were going through high school and into college.  The good news was that the Toffler's were right, we were in transition out of the Industrial Age, as we now refer to it, and into the Information Age.  Us Gen X kids, and the younger generations, were not stuck in routine assembly line jobs, for the most part.  The downside was that about 1/3 of the new jobs that evolved, mostly tech oriented, paid really well, better than those old factory jobs.  But the other 2/3 of jobs, mostly service jobs, paid a lot less.  In addition, for a whole bunch of reasons, real wages for most workers had declined, compared to prices of goods, ever since.  

I got into a weird new sport of BMX freestyle in high school, when living in Boise, Idaho, in the early 80's.  I somehow managed to stumble into the BMX industry as a 20-year-old, which led me on a far different path than my former Idaho and Ohio classmates.  In my 20's, I was surrounded by young entrepreneurs, building their own businesses from scratch, and by pro and top amateur action sports athletes.  By getting into new sports, which really weren't even sports, by traditional standards, collectively, we created a whole new world of sports, and industries to support them.  Skateboarding, snowboarding, inline skating, rock climbing, and other sports were following the lead of surfing, spreading worldwide.  

Being a geeky BMX guy, I started reading a ton about business, and then personal development, to try and get over my personal shyness and inability to get my own business started.  The main reason was because I was afraid to sell to people, which is key to any business.  No sales, no business.

I wound up working a bunch of odd jobs, while reading 250 or so books over 20 years, and watching the financial and real estate markets.  I also saw the growth of action sports from the inside out, learning a ton about how ideas and new trends build and spread through society, without realizing I was learning it.  Trying to figure out where business and economic trends are heading has been a huge interest of mine since the early 1990's.  

As the interenet began to take over music, media, and commerce in the 2000's and early 2010's, I began to realize that The Third Wave that AlvinToffler explained, was still playing out.  And THAT is why we are not in the Industrial Age anymore, but were are not in the true Information Age either.  I believe we are still in between the two ages, in transition.  Many things, like telecommuncations, computers, music, video/TV/Film, and publishing,  have pretty much made the transition into the Information Age.  But many other things, like education, banking, housing/real estate, government, law, politics, and other institutions, are still working largely from Industrial Age models.  All of them use a lot of new technology, but the underlying business models or frameworks have not moved to a digital/tech native form yet.  

And that is why the world seems so crazy these days.  At the core, millions of people, and much of our work, social, fnancial, political, and business lives, are still somewhere in between the Industrial Age world and the Information Age world.  I call this late stage of this transition period, The Big Freakin' Transition, and I've written quite a bit about it (I added the word "freakin" to distinguish it from other "Big Transition" thoughts on the internet).  But the idea is still largely unknown to just about everyone.  I think that if people hear this idea, it makes a lot of sense, and helps our current, chaotic world make more sense, as well.  It's a bit like the whole world is going through puberty all at once, just less horny.  We used to be one thing, now we're in between, but not quite the new thing yet.   

We have a huge population of poor and homeless people, myself included at the moment, who have fallen through the cracks in work or social lives.  As a society, we haven't figure out housing in a world where the high paying tech jobs mostly cluster in a few major metros, driving up rent and mortgage prices to astronomical levels for lower paid workers.  We have all kinds of financial systems, new and old, now in play, with fiat money losing steam and crypto gaining steam , and about 25 different ways to pay for a burger, or a cup of coffee, or a new car.  The deep, underlying issue is this continuing transition from older business and social models to new tech and info adapted models.  

On top of all that messy transition stuff, right now we have high price inflation and another recession (maybe a depression) here or looming. AND we have major climate issues, like floods, falling river/lake levels out west, heat waves, massive forest fires, and changing weather patterns.  And we have major drug epidemics, which include a lot of the same people who can't find good paying work in the places they grew up.  We have hundreds of small towns and cities that are dying on the vine, while major metros keep swelling.  OK, the pandemic led to out migrations of big cities in 2020 and 2021, but I think we will see that trend reverse in time.  There are so many abandoned factories, malles, and other buildings in the U.S., that Urban Exploring, or UrbEx, is a pastime for many Millennials and Gen Z people.  I used a video of Rolling Acres Mall from Akron, Ohio in that last link for two reasons.  1) Rolling Acres became famous in about 2014, as one of the earliest examples of a dead mall, before the term, "Retail Apocalypse" was invented.  2) I was born in Barberton, Ohio, about three miles from the site of Rolling Acres Mall.  Although we moved from the area before I was 3-years-old, my grandparents lived about ten miles away, and this is a mall we visited when I was a kid sometimes, back when it was thriving in the 1970's.  The places thousands of people worked and shopped when I was a kid are now often creepy, abandoned buildings to explore and shoot video for today's teens and young people.  Transition.

The point is, we have so many different levels of change happening, that nearly everyone is overwhelmed.  When people feel overwhelmed, they draw back, into the customs they grew up in , which may seem under attack.  That leads to poltical "tribalism," along with racial, sexist, cultural prejudice, and other divides.  We devlove into an "us" versus "them" world, across lines we used to think of as "us" on a large scale.  

The Tofflers put the start of the transition period, between the Industrial Age and the Information Age, way back in 1956.  That's when "white collar" office workers first outnumbered "blue collar" factory workers in the United States.  The long period of change began very slowly, from one age to another.  As new innovations came out and were adopted by people, change began to accelerate, with one form of technology or one new social norm, building upon others.  

So now we are in the late stages of this long period of transition, and change is happening all over the place, all around us, and it's driving us all kind of nuts.  Huge amounts of change do that to societies.  As I pieced all these ideas together, I began to believe that the financial issues of the 2020's, one or more major recessions, or possibly a great depression, would force change on many people, businesses, and institutions that have been resisting change so far.  I think this will be the craziest decade of this long, 80 or 90 year transition period.  It feels crazy, because it IS crazy.  

But we have models to look at now.  We've seen the factories shut down, and we survived.  We've seen phones go from the kitchen wall and parents' bedroom, to a tiny supercomputer in everyone's pocket, that can communicate with most of the world.  We've seen music go from 8 tracks and records to CD's, MP3's and now streaming.  We survived.  Books, thank God, are still available as books, but also as digital versions.  Three channels of lame ass network TV (millions of people watched Hee Haw every week when I was a kid), have turned to lots of quality streaming, and millions of options (many nearly as lame ass as Hee Haw), on the internet.  We watched Sears, J.C. Penney, and Kmart (blue light special anyone?) die off, as the Retail Apocalypse exploded, then quelled during the pandemic.  At the same time, over the last 25 years, we saw Amazon, eBay, thousands of Shopify and Etsy online stores, and buy online/pick-up in store models happen.  And we survived an actual depression in the Spring of 2020, AND a 100 year pandemic.  If you're reading this, you have survived all that.  We can figure out housing, crypto,  functional banking, education, and how to count votes as well as we count stock trades.  And NFT's.  Someday, even $400,000 monkey JPEG's may make sense. to most people.  Hey,you figured out internet porn  pretty damn quickly back in the day, didn't you.  (Pause now to delete your browser history).  

Yes, the world IS crazy.  A big part of that is because we are in the middle of a Big Freakin' Transition that involves millions of small transitions.  If this basic idea makes some sense, then my blog is beginning to do its job.  My work here is to help anyone interested to navigate what I call The Tumultuous 2020's, survive the crazy parts, and look for opportunities that will help you thrive as time goes on.  That's my job here.  I hope that helps this make sense.  Now go create something this world needs.  Or go back to work, since most people who read my blog do it when they're supposed to be working at their real job.  




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