This is one of the best minds on the economy around, Chamath Palihapitiya. This talk by him, about 11 minutes, is from a few weeks ago, but goes into the macroeconomic picture in the world today, going back to the Great Recession of 2007-2009. There are some unrelated photos edited over most of this, but the audio is solid.
I've been writing about a long, sticky, major economic downturn for about 3 1/2 years now. The trends I have been watching for many years, began to merge, suggesting really crazy times ahead. I've grown to be pretty good at forecasting the coming econmic climate, but haven't been able to build a business to take advantage of the trends I've seen building. I'm a broke homeless guy now, and it's easy to make the case I have no clue what I'm talking about, despite some pretty solid predictions over the last couple of years. I've been watching and studying financial markets, and several long term social trends that affect them, for 30 years now. This, right now, is the biggest part of the downturn we're heading into, in my opinion. I think the rest of 2022, 2023, and 2024 will be the craziest years of this recession and in business and financial worlds. But I don't want you to take my word for it.
In this post, I'm putting several links of talks and interviews by actual, respectable, mostly really wealthy, investors, econmists, and economic analysts. What they're all saying in the last month or two is getting pretty similar. Check out any of these that interest you, and their thoughts on this recession. This will give you a better picture of where we're at, to gain a much better understanding of what's happening now, and what will likely happen in September 2022, and the months and years beyond.
The Housing Crash is Here (50% drop in sales)- Adam Taggart of Wealthion interviews Nick Gerli of Reventure Consulting- August 24th, 2022- 44:05-this is part 2 of this interview, Part 1 is on Nick's channel, and is linked at the end of this video
Mohamed El-Erian- "The Risk of Recession is High and Getting Higher"- Yahoo Finance, uploaded August 6th, 2022- 33:32
These are a few of the best minds in economics, investing, and business in todays world. These are only a few of the many people sharing similar ideas, in the last few weeks and months, and are ones I believe really have some solid thoughts to share.
If you want to get an idea of the future of the financial markets and business climate, look at the best minds looking forward, who actually run a business or have a history of making money actually investing (not trading). Generally speaking, they see asset bubbles and more pain ahead financially. But that also means there are amazing bargains coming, at some point, when stocks, crypto, real estate, precious metals, and other assets hit bottom.
But for most people, recessions mean a struggle to pay bills, with credit card, car/truck, student, and home debt, that they owe, becoming a much bigger issue than in good economic times. Most people struggle through recessions, some worrying about losing jobs, finding a new job when they get laid off, and cutting back on expenses at home. For some reason, few average people want to think about a coming recession, much less prepare for one, yet there will always be another one before long.
One huge thing that is different about 2022, compared to previous recessions, is we now have the internet, and in particularYouTube, many popular platforms of social media, and all kinds of people doing research and putting out information about what is happening in the financial and business worlds. The internet was around in 2007-08, but we didn't have the huge amount of content creators we have now, and social media was still pretty new to most people. The level of communication between people now means that there are far more smart minds out there, researching, thinking, and talking about what's going on, than during the Great Recession.
Yes, we had the recession of 2020, technically a short depression, but the pandemic caused downturn, and The Fed's response, kept it from being the recession it should have been. Things got all out of whack with $5-6 trillion of new money flooding the economy, and millions of people turning into Stimulus Ballers for a while. So now we get the more traditional recession that should have happened then, with high inflation heading in, as an added bonus.
The level of good information available, and our hyper-connected level of communcation with each other now will change the way this recession plays out. Yes, there is a lot of bad information out there, but there is also a lot of good information out there. When you watch videos or read blogs and articles, look at someone's background. If they're older, and have been successful at business or investing through several recessions, like Ray Dalio, Jim Rogers, Robert and Kim Kiyosaki, and Nomi Prins, in the videos above, they usually have some solid advice and thoughts. Don't believe every word they say, but take a successful background as a sign that they have learned a lot over the years. When several established business people start saying very similar things about where the economy is going, then it's smart to take them pretty seriously. Then do your own thinking. Check with other experts, see what they say. This will help give you a better idea of the Big Picture of the world of investments and business, and hopefully help you make better decisions in your life. That's the point here.
This blog post, and all of mine about business, economics, and investments, is for your entertainment and education, and should not be taken as investment advice. My full Disclaimer for this blog is linked above.
