Showing posts with label #money. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #money. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 13, 2022

A September to remember...


 The CPI inflation rate came in at 8.3% (YoY) this morning (Sept 13, 2022),  .2% higher than the markets expected, which led to a much needed dose of reality in asset prices, which is why stocks are tanking.  

Welcome to Recessionary Wave #2 of what I call The Phoenix Great Depression.  I've been blogging about a prolonged period of economic downturn since 2018.  This is it, I believe we're now heading into what will be the worst part of the 2020's now.  That's the bad news, a gnarly recession that will be comparable to the Great Recession.  If you lose your job, or have an absurd amount of debt, things will get tough.  But we'll get through it.  We all made it through 2020, and that was an actual economic depression AND a 100 year pandemic, at the same time.   

What does all this mumbo jumbo mean for you, an average working American?

(One) Prices on every day things, will keep rising, in general.  Gas prices have back off, but food, household items, and utilities will probably keep rising for a while. 

(Two) Home prices are beginning to come down in many cites, particularly in the West, Southwest, and the South.  They will probably drop quite a bit more, particularly in cities with lots of  high tech, like the San Francisco Bay Area, L.A., Seattle, and Austin.  The smaller cities that saw huge home price increases during the pandemic (Boise, Denver, Salt Lake City/Provo, Nashville, etc.) will see really big price drops.  The Northeast, Midwest, and plains states will see mild real estate declines.  

(Three) Rent prices MIGHT actually decline in some of the higher priced cities, over the next year. This is iffy, but the potential is there. We'll see.  

(Four) Interest rates will go up more next week, after The Fed's meeting, by .5% to .75%, and will most likely go up .5% more later this year.  Loans of any kind will be harder to get, and charge more interest for a year or more.  Credit cards, new student loans, car/truck loans, business loans, and home loans.  So 30 year fixed mortgage rates should be around 7.5% to 8.5% by the end of 2022.  The Fed can't lower interest rates, even if we fall into a deep recession, until the inflation rate (CPI) is down below 3% or so.  That will probably be LATE 2023.  

(Five) The GOOD NEWS- If you have some money set aside to invest.  Asset prices should drop dramtically over the next 6 months to a year.  We will see some of the best prices for stocks, real estate, crypto, and collectibles in this coming year.  If you're in a position to buy any of these, and you do your homework and proper due diligence and search for great deals, there will be many amazing deals to take advantage of.  I'm talking of long term investments, not day trading gambling.  Some of the best deals of the next couple of decades will happen in the next year, in my opinion.  

Recessions are when everything goes on sale, and almost nobody wants to buy

Here's where we're at right now.  Inflation is historically high, it's been over 8% (annual average) since March, and it was 7.9% in February.  It's been over 6% since last October.  Today's numbers came in at 8.3%.  That means The Fed (Federal Reserve) will keep raising interest rates to slow down inflation.  If they figured inflation that same way they did in the 1970's, today's inflation would be higher today than it was in 1979-1981. (Check Shadow Stats for details)

A good "yardstick" for watching interest rates is the U.S. 10 year treasury rate (chart here).  It was about 1.77% at the beginning of 2020, and is 3.43% today.  That's a HUGE jump in interest rates.  Most people pay more attention to the 30 year fixed mortgage rate, the interest you pay to buy a home.  Using the Google calulator, that's now just over 7% (20% down, $500K loan, 698 FICA score- the US average score).  Those mortgages were about 3% in January.  Home mortgage rates have more than doubled this year, and they WILL go higher.  

Next week, The Fed (F.O.M.C.) meets, and they are expected to raise interest rates another .5% at least, and likely .75%, after today's inflation numbers.  So we know most interest rates will follow that lead, and rise as well.  

Inflation should slowly calm down, and will likely be around 6% to 7% by the end of this year.  But The Fed wants 2% inflation, and that's a long ways away.  

Overall, we're heading into another gnarly recession.  It's always smart to pay down your highest interest debt as much as possible.  It's smart to keep learning new job skills for your current job, to avoid layoffs.  If you do get laid off, figure out what job skills you may need to learn to get a new job, or find a new career.  A LOT of people, MILLIONS, will have to find new careers in the next few years,  that's just the nature of these crazy times we are in, something I've written a lot about.  

Most people, generally, will have to cut back on spending, and just buckle down and work through this, like every other recession we've all lived through.  It's not the end of the world, though it may feel like it at times, for some people.  

I know this is not what everyone wants to hear.  But I'm a futurist thinker looking at what's really happening.  Like I said, there will be a lot of great deals on big assets, and there will be a lot of cool news businesses that start in the next 2-4 years, and grow after that.  So that's my take on things.  If you don't know whether you should listen to me, here are a couple of blog posts from months or years ago.  

The Economy for 2022- March 22, 2022

Predictions: As we head blindly into 2020- January 26, 2020

A Beginner's Guide to the Next Great Recession- August 9, 2019

Wednesday, September 7, 2022

Recession Tips: 25 ways to put cash in your pocket TODAY

Here's a panhandler using shock value to try and get some donations.  I saw this guy, and snapped the photo, with his permission, in Hollywood back in 2019.  He had a bunch of weird and funny signs, asking tourists for cash, I'm not sure how this one panned out for him.  

This post is a companion to the one I wrote the other day, "20 legal ways to put cash in your pocket this week."  Like I said in that post, we all have our favorite go to ideas when we need to come up with a little extra cash for some reason.  The point of making this big list is to expand your thinking, to some ideas that maybe didn't cross your mind.  Warning, the links in this video might be offensive to humans, or NSFW.  But you're reading a post about free money, so there's a good chance you don't have a job, so that probably won't be a problem.  

(One) Cash in change you've been saving- Yes, change.  Coins.  Icky physical money.  Yes, it's old school. But it's one of the easiest ways to save some money without really trying.  When I was a taxi driver, years ago, I had a small cup, in the cup holder of my cab, with some change in it.  Sometimes in a taxi, when a fare was, say $6.65, there are people who wouldn't round up and pay me $7.00.  Really.  They wanted that 35 cents in change back.  So that's what the cup was for, change I could grab quickly for those passengers.  Taxi driving, in the mid-2000's, was a mostly cash business.  I was buying gas every day, and food, and I paid for those in whole dollars, and threw the change in the cup.  So my cup of change kept filling up.  

At the time, I was living in my taxi, and had my clothes and personal stuff in a storage unit.  I bought  a little plastic water jug, put it in the storage unit, and started throwing the extra change in there.  Once the change started adding up, I wanted to add more change to it.  It just happened automatically.  Then I started throwing a dollar bill or two in the jug.  When I was in a bind, I'd shake some change out of the jar, to cover what I needed.  Eventually, I bought separate little jugs with quarters, dimes, nickels, and pennies.  When I finally had to move out of my storage unit later on, I finally cashed it all in.  The dime jug along had over $100 in it.  I saved over $100 in dimes, without trying.  For real.  Just by paying for things with cash, paying in whole dollars, and throwing th change in a cup, I was saving $30 to $70 a month, without trying.  So if you make this a habit, and get in a bind, cash in some of that change.  

(Two) Cash in aluminum cans/other recyclables you've been saving- This is another habit you can do pretty easily.  If you have a bin for aluminum cans, and maybe glass and plastic bottles, if they can be cashed in where you live, then you have some untapped money growing day by day.  When you're in a bind, cash in those recyclables in and use the money where you need it.

(Three) Tap into a "slush fund" you have for "rainy days"- A "slush fund" is my name for some savings set aside, in a place or account seperate from every day money, and separate from long term savings.  So you may have your checking account to use for every day expenses, and then CD's or a savings account destined to go into retirement, investments or some long term goal.  I've found that having an "in between" savings account, maybe $50 to $200, is good for the mid term things in life that just come up.  With a slush fund, you have a little back-up money when a tire blows on the car, or the kids need money for a trip at school, or whatever.  It's more than can you can easily pull out of the checking account.  You can pull some money out of the slush fund to handle a problem, without having to touch your long term savings for retirement or investments.  So if you have a slush fund, pull some money out of there, take care of the current issue, then build that money back up in the slush fund again.   

(Four) Pull money from savings/CD's- If the reason you need money is big enough, and important enough, and you have a savings account or CD's, you can tap into those to pay the unexpected expense.  

(Five) Pawn something at a pawn shop- Pawn shops go back to anicent China, around 3,000 years ago, and were also around in Ancient Greece and Rome.  That doesn't surprise me.  Since civilization has existed, there have been people who got into a bind and needed some money for an emergency.  Pawn shops loan people money, and hold a physical object as collateral.  The loans are generally fairly small, $20-$500 maybe, most of the time, and the interest rates are pretty high.  But the interest is not that much in total, since the loans are small.  The most popular things to pawn are jewelry, musical instruments, guns, power tools, and electronics, though they make take other items with value.  You take something to a pawn shop, they offer you a certain amount, far less than the value of the item, and they give you cash, and hold the item until you pay off the loan.  You come back, usually within 30 or 90 days, pay off the loan and the interest, and get your item back.  Simple and effective.  There's a reason pawn shops have been around for 3,000 years.  

(Six) Sell something at a pawn shop- Pawn shops also buy physical items outright.  Jewelry, guns, musical instruments, sporting equipment, power tools, and electronics are the primary items they buy.  They may buy other things if the items have inherent value.  Usually they pay 10% to 20% of the current value, so you don't get a high price, but you get CASH RIGHT NOW.  That's the point of pawn shops.  

(Seven) Sell clothes at a consignment shop- These primarily buy women's clothes or baby clothes and gear, depending on the shop.  You take in used clothes, they pick what they like, and pay you cash for those pieces.   

(Eight) Sell something of yours to a friend or family member- Find someone in your immediate life, and sell them something of yours.  "Hey Bob, you know that motorcycle helmet I have in the garage, I'm in a bind, will you give me $50 for it?"  That kind of thing.  

(Nine) Sell collectibles to a local shop- There aren't as many brick and mortar collectibles shops as there used to be.  But if you collect something, and there's a shop that buys those things in your area, then you can sell pieces of your collection.  This can be sports cards, comic books, action figures, high end watches, collectible figurines, stamps, or anything else that people collect.  

(Ten) Sell collectible coins to a local coin shop- This is another kind of collectible, and there are still some physical shops in many areas where you can sell collectible coins.

(Eleven)- Sell used furniture to a local consignment shop- Do you have some high quality furniture that you don't really need or want anymore?  There are furniture consigment shops that may buy it.  In many cases, they may come to your house, check it out, and make an offer.  If you accept the offer, they give you money on the spot, and haul the items back to your shop.  In some cases, you may have to take the furniture to their shop to get it checked out.  

(Twelve)- Sell gold, silver, or platinum to a local shop or jeweler- If you bought gold, silver, or platinum as an investment at some point, you can sell these for cash at a gold and silver shop, coin shops, and many jewelry shops will also buy them, for cash on the spot.  

(Thirteen)- Sell jewelry to a jewelry shop- They may not pay top dollar, but they will likely pay more than a pawn shop for quality jewelry, and gemstones.  

(Fourteen)- Go collect aluminum cans/recyclables, then cash them in- If you don't have a bin of aluminum cans or other recyclables, you can go out and pick some up.  There's a lot of competition if it pays well, but you can find a few dollars worth if you put some time in searching.  

(Fifteen)- Sell record albums, CD's, or DVD's to a local shop- There are lot less of these music shops than there used to be, but they do still exist.  You can still sell used vinyl records, CD's, and DVD's, if you have any, to local music shops. 

(Sixteen) Take money out of the offering plate at church, and leave God an IOU- OK, I'm kidding, DON'T do this.  I just wanted to see if anyone was really reading this far down this list.  

(Seventeen) Take item back to a store (keep your receipts)- If you have some item you bought recently, and have a receipt, like clothes, an appliance, even canned foods, you can take them back to the store and get a refund.  

(Eighteen) Babysit for someone- Does anyone you know need someone to watch their kid(s) today?  This one makes sense more for younger people, like teens, who may do some babysitting already.  Babysitting pays a lot better now than when I watched neighbor kids while in high school.  Back then the pay for watching two demon spawn boys was $1 and hour and all the government cheese I could eat.  I don't like governemtn cheese.  Things have improved since then, from what I've heard.  If you babysit, get word around, see if anyone needs you to sit the kids today.

(Nineteen) Do a job on Fiverr if you're already signed up and active- If you have some basic design/technical skills, and  are already signed up on Fiverr to do gigs, try to get one or two today.

(Twenty) Do a job on Mechanical Turk if you're already set up and active- If you have some design or technical skills, and are already signed up and ready to go on Mechanical Turk, try to score gig today.

(Twenty-one) Offer to do some service for friends or neighbors- See if any of your neighbors have a small project you can to to earn some cash.  Ask them in person, on social media, or use a site like Nextdoor to find some local gig to do and earn some cash.  

(Twenty-two) Teach a skill to someone for a fee- Do you have a skill that someone in your area would like to learn.  Teach the neighbor's daughter how to do a cartwheel for her cheerleader tryouts, teach Aunt Ester how to work Instagram, teach someone how to play a song on their new guitar.  Whatever.  Actually, you can do this online/on-phone as well these days, so it could be a person anywhere.  Be creative.  

(Twenty-three) Do homework for someone for cash/trade- I used to do this for a couple of my roommates in community college, back in the day.  I once read 90 pages and filled out a 7 page worksheet for a $6 pepperoni pizza.  Hey, I was young and needed money.  Work a better deal than that, but you get the idea.  

(Twenty-four) Give someone a haircut (if you know how and they actually want one)- Got some skills with the clippers and scissors?  Give someone a haircut and style for some cash.  People in the hood know about this one, barber skills are highly respected in the hood, homeless shelters, and jails.  But haircuts can be done anywhere. Well almost anywhere.  I saw some guy giving haircuts in the back row at church once, and that didn't go over well.    

(Twenty-five) Ask for money on social media (Good, LEGIT causes only!)-Sites like CyberBeg and Begging Money are two sites left where you can do this.  If you have a LEGIT cause ("I need beer" is not a legit cause), you can log on and ask strangers to help you out.  I've never tried either of these, but they are out there, and you can try them if you want.

(Twenty-six) Ask friend or family for a loan- There's a reason why this is near the bottom of the list.  Loans from family and friends can really help out in a time of need.  They can also turn into long term beefs that keep people from talking to each other for years.  That's why this is so far down on the list.  Do not ask a person close to you for a loan unless you actually intend to pay it back.  

(Twenty-seven) Panhandle money from a stranger- "Panhandling" is asking money from a stranger in the streets.  That's the actual definition, paraphrased.  Panhandling is begging for money, something that has been happening since money was invented.  There are so many people who do it now because there are a lot more down and out people in society these days, and because it works.  You can either just ask a stranger for money somewhere, or make a sign asking for money, and sit or stand in a place where a lot of people will see you.  Crazy as it sounds, about 1% to 3% of people will give a complete stranger a small amount of money.  If you do this, be polite, and say "Thank you."  

There are four main types of panhandling: (1) One on one- asking a stranger for money on the street,  (2) "Flying a sign"- holding a sign in a popular location, asking for money, (3) Running a non-profit organization- have your volunteers ask strangers for money, then pay yourself $250K a year as CEO, and (4) Becoming a politician- Put on a suit, make bullshit promises, and ask strangers for money in the street.  Even if you lose the election, your meals, travel, hotel, and bar tabs get paid for the whole time you're running.  

(Twenty-eight) Put granny on the corner to turn tricks- OK, I'm joking again, don't do this to granny, even if she has false teeth and can take her dentures out and really do a good job.  I just wanted to see if anyone made it to the bottom of the list.  

So there you have it, 25 LEGIT, potential ways to put money in your pocket today.  And two funny ways to give you a laugh and get you to read the whole list.  As an added bonus, I'm going to add one more.  Start your own blog, and put a donate button on it, a "cyber tip jar," as they used to call these, where people can throw you a few bucks to buy a cup of coffee, or buy lunch, or something.  Like this one below... where you can send me a couple of bucks from the money you'll make off these ideas.

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