This video is from March 2022, it appears. I picked it for this post because as a currently homeless artist/blogger, I talk to one Postmates driver nearly every day, and see several more in my area, either sitting in their cars waiting for deliveries, or picking up food and rushing out to drop it off. Full disclosure, this Gig Nation YouTube guy just got a 9 to 5 job 3 weeks ago, a month or so after he made this video.
On the Sunday after Thanksgiving, back in 2007, I walked into the taxi office of the company I worked for, dropped off my cab and keys, and walked out to live homeless on the streets of Orange County, California. I literally went from working 80-100 hours a week to full blown homelessness. I became homeless by working hard in a declining industry. I don't want any of you in that position.
I had just worked from 70 to 110 hours a week, as a taxi driver, from September 2003. For about 7 months during that time, I lived in an indie art gallery (really) and drove the owner's taxi on the weekends, clocking in about 40 hours over 2 1/2 days. The rest of the time I spent 7 days a week in the taxi, working 13-18 hours most days. When I dropped off my taxi that Sunday morning, I weighed about 365 pounds, was in horrible health, and had survived three bouts of cellulitis (severe leg infection) that year, the first of which nearly killed me. Taxi drivers were a main part of the gig economy before anyone called it the gig economy. I know the struggle. And just for the record, I liked being a taxi driver, at least the first 50 hours a week. It's the second 50 hours a week that sucked.
The younger people reading this may not really remember the Great Recession of 2007-2009, because you were kids, and didn't have to deal with it on a worker level. The older people remember it. In my case, business was struggling before that. The taxi business took a big hit from new technology around 2002-2003, when dispatch computers replaced the old CB radios we used to communicate. This allowed the companies to ditch the old time human dispatchers, and put far more taxis on the road. More taxis, less business per driver, more hours in the cab for less money. If you do gig work now, you understand that part.
Now, in May 2022, inflation is raising prices on almost everything, except your pay, interest rates are rising, and the stock market is trending down, The Federal Reserve, aka The Fed, is literally trying to drive the U.S. near, or into a recession, to slow down inflation and to try and force more people back to the millions of open jobs, many of which don't pay enough to live on comfortably, if at all. I am many things, a currently homeless artist blogger, and also a futurist thinking geek who loves economic trends and tries to figure out where society is heading. Among other things, I predicted the stock market collapse of 2020 before it started going down, in this blog post.
I believe that inflation is here for at least 6 to 12 more months, although it may be close to peaking, officially it's about 8 to 8.5% annually. In my opinion, The Fed fucked up (again!), and inflation will be 6% to 10% for the rest of this year. It will probably trend down in the next 2-4 months, but I doubt it will get below 6%. The Fed is late to the game, trying to tame the inflation that created, by not raising interest rates sooner. They have raised the Fed Funds rate 3/4% so far this year, driving U.S. treasury, mortgage, and consumer interest rates up 1% to 1.5% so far. This makes loans harder to get, and makes it more expensive to borrow money, which does slow down the economy to some extent. This rise in interest rates finally got Wall Street's attention, and that's why stocks are heading down so much recently.
The Fed has already said it will raise interest rates at least 1/2%, two more times this year. So every interest rate goes up at least another 1%, maybe 1.5 to 2%, from where we are now. This will cause the stock markets to drop much further, slow down the real estate market, and cause more corporate layoffs, and send us back into a recession almost certainly. Basically, business, overall, slows down. That means your business as a typical gig worker, will likely go down, to some extent in wealthy areas, and probably get quite a bit worse in working class areas and small towns and cities. That's going to be the general trend for much of 2022.
But gig work, like giving people rides, delivering food and groceries, and doing online work on a platform like Fiverr, are mostly localized. Some gig jobs may do better in coming months, while most slow down.
That slowing down is what happened to me in 2007. The taxi business in the Huntington Beach area, where I drove, slowed down dramatically in August of 2007, more than a year before the collapse of investment banks Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and the big collapse of September 2008, of the Great Recession. That's when I had to walk away from taxi driving in late 2007, I just couldn't pay $550 a week for my cab, and $300 for gas anymore.
As an amateur futurist, who has been reading, learning, and watching economic trends for over 30 years, I think a serious, fairly long recession is inevitable at this point. So what do you do as a gig worker? Start thinking about options if your particular gig does slow down.
The whole "Gig Economy," as it's now called, barely existed in 2008. Grubhub started in 2004, Amazon's Mechanical Turk started in 2005. Task Rabbit in 2008, Uber in 2009, Fiverr in 2010. Postmates in 2011. Lyft and Instacart in 2012, GoPuff in 2013. Uber Eats in 2014, and E Scooter companies Bird and Lime in 2017, for any of you nighttime scooter wranglers out there. We're in new territory as a society, and millions of gig workers are doing jobs that didn't even exist during the Great Recession. People will still need rides, and order food to be delivered. But there will be less of both, in most areas.
What you can do now is ask yourself some good questions. How can I do this more efficiently? In my area (San Fernando Valley, CA) there's a Postmates guy who works on an Electric scooter in an upscale area. He's a serious gig guy, works hard, and will probably be just fine. I've seen another delivery guy on a motorized bicycle, he's not spending much on gas. Most of you can't do that, but there may be ways for you to be more efficient. Other good questions... Can I get needed car repairs done now, while I have the money? Can I do some form of work online while sitting in my car? Can I study a new job or business idea while waiting? You can learn all kinds of skills on YouTube, and even more in depth ones at a site like Skillshare*. Can I get personal customers to hire me to do the same, or similar jobs ("personals" were a huge part of taxi driving)? Can I get into a more efficient car or truck? Is it time to consider a 9 to 5 or more traditional job? Should I go (back) to college instead?
All of you in the younger generations (I'm an old Gen. X guy), that's you Millennials and Gen Z, seem to have this thing against people being "negative." There's a big difference between being negative, and being realistic. We're in a downtrending economy overall right now. That's just reality. You can whine about it, but gas prices will still go up some, and many businesses will slow down. Accepting the reality of what's happening will help you make better decisions in the months ahead. This blog is about looking at the chaotic world we're in, and trying to find ways to make the most of the crazy times we're all in now, and those ahead. So what are the best options for you in the months to come? Think about it.
*Not a paid link.
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